We analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and government policies on firms’ aid take-up, layoff and furlough decisions. We collect new survey data for 10,642 small, medium and large Danish firms, and match to government records of all aid-supported furloughed workers during the pandemic as well as administrative accounting data. This is the first representative sample of firms reporting the pandemic’s impact on their revenue and labor choices, showing a steep decline in revenue and a strong reported effect of labor aid take-up on lower job separations. Relative to a normal year, 30 percent more firms have experienced revenue declines. Comparing firms’ actual layoff and furlough decisions to their reported counterfactual decisions in the absence of aid, we estimate 81,000 fewer workers were laid off and 285,000 workers were furloughed. Our results suggest the aid policy was effective in preserving job matches at the start of the pandemic.

See the latest working paper (with Morten Bennedsen, Birthe Larsen and Ian Schmutte) here, and the Vox EU summary here. Our work was covered in The Economist here.

O intuito desta pesquisa é documentar como o COVID-19 a afetou a indústria no Brasil. O foco do nosso trabalho é em empresas de médio e grande porte.

Os objetivos do projeto são documentar:

1. A suspensão de atividades em resposta ao COVID-19

2. Como os arranjos trabalhistas das firmas foi alterado em resposta ao COVID-19

3. O impacto à receita empresarial

4. O uso das medidas provisórias como auxílio temporário

Como gestor, sua participação é muito importante para uma coleta de dados representativa. Todos dados coletados são completamente confidenciais, regido pelo protocolo do Comitê de Ética da Universidade de Cornell (Nro do protocolo 2003009499). Toda informação coletada será usada apenas para fins acadêmicos.

Este projeto é uma colaboração com acadêmicos da Fundação Getúlio Vargas (Francisco Costa), e Universidade da Georgia (Ian Schmutte).

COVID-19 led to a drastic and unexpected closure of all schools at the end of the 2019-2020 school year. While school districts and states have provided general guidelines to schools, it is not yet clear how changes are being implemented on the ground. For example, how quickly were schools able to transition to online modes of instruction? Do students and teachers have adequate access to these distance learning tools? What is the level of preparedness for Academic Year 2020-21?

We contribute to this literature by collecting new and timely data from a representative sample of 320 principals in Puerto Rico (PR) public schools during May-June 2020, including a new module to document school responses and the implementation of COVID-19 response guidelines. The COVID-19 module was added to an ongoing research effort assessing the effects of a school leadership management training program on educational outcomes using the Development World Management Survey (D-WMS) instrument. We measure the share of students with internet access and using online learning tools; school leadership communication and monitoring procedures during closures; and school strategic plans for AY 2020-21. We also document pre-closure management practices for these schools, which includes information on the management of instructional practices, monitoring and target setting, and personnel management. As such, we can explore the relationship between management practices and differential responsiveness of schools to the COVID-19 closures.

Project with Gustavo Bobonis, Marco Gonzalez-Navarro and Jessica Wagner.